A meta-analysis of outage cost for value-based reliability planning

This study presents a meta-analysis of the Value of Lost Load (VoLL) to support countries seeking to implement value-based reliability planning in electricity markets. VoLL serves as a key indicator in addressing the missing money problem and promoting efficient investment in generation and transmission infrastructure. However, its estimation is often costly, resource-intensive, and inaccessible to many countries with limited data availability. To overcome these barriers, we construct a comprehensive database of outage cost estimates drawn from 56 studies covering 47 countries. The database incorporates various estimation methods and contextual variables, forming the basis for a meta-regression model. This framework enables benefit transfer of VoLL values by identifying how outage costs vary systematically with macroeconomic conditions, estimation methods, sectoral differences, and outage characteristics. Using this approach, we estimate context-specific VoLL values for South Korea as a case study, illustrating how the model can inform policy in environments where direct empirical estimation is not feasible. Our findings highlight that VoLL estimates are strongly associated with income level, electricity prices, and estimation methodology, while commonly used grid reliability metrics such as SAIDI and SAIFI are statistically insignificant. By offering a replicable analytical framework and an openly accessible database, this study provides practical tools for policymakers and system planners. These results contribute to advancing more economically efficient and reliability-oriented electricity systems in both advanced and developing markets.