ECOLOGICAL SCIENTISTS’ DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY AND IGNORANCE: IMPLICATIONS FOR BIOLOGY EDUCATION

Ecological scientists routinely make decisions in contexts where scientific uncertainty and ignorance constrain available evidence, yet empirical research on how they judge such situations remains limited. Understanding these decision-making processes is critical because ecological crises—such as biological invasions and chemical accidents— require rapid action despite incomplete information. Accordingly, this study aimed to examine how ecological field experts respond cognitively, emotionally, and behaviorally to different uncertainty-laden scenarios. The study involved 16 ecological field experts from a single national context (with an average experience of 22.0 years), specializing in amphibians, reptiles, freshwater fish, and birds. Data were collected using three scenario-based instruments representing increasing levels of uncertainty, risk, and urgency, and analyzed through constant comparative analysis. Four distinct decision-making types emerged: Consistent Knowledge-Seekers (25.0%), Risk-Escalating Responders (25.0%), Action-Oriented Responders (25.0%), and Policy-Focused Responders (25.0%). As risk increased across scenarios, the research orientation decreased from 93.8% to 43.8%, while the preventive/management orientation increased to 56.2%. Additionally, emotional responses intensified to 25.0% in the high-risk scenario. These findings underscore the importance of biology education in leveraging uncertainty as a learning resource and fostering students’ contextual scientific reasoning, adaptive expertise, and communication competencies.