Generation and Verification of Synthetic Wind Data With Seasonal Fluctuation Using Hidden Markov Model

The wind data measured from local meteorological masts is used to evaluate wind speed distribution and energy production in the specified site for wind farm However, wind data measured from meteorological masts often contain missing information or insufficient desired height or data length, making it difficult to perform wind turbine control and performance simulation. Therefore, long-term continuous wind data is very important to assess the annual energy production and the capacity factor for wind turbines or wind farms. In addition, if seasonal influences are distinct, such as on the Korean Peninsula, wind data with seasonal characteristics should be considered. This study presents methodologies for generating synthetic wind that take into account fluctuations in both wind speed and direction using the hidden Markov model, which is a statistical method. The wind data for statistical processing are measured at Maldo island in the Kokunnsan-gundo, Jeonbuk Province using the Automatic Weather System (AWS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The synthetic wind generated using the hidden Markov model will be validated by comparing statistical variables, wind energy density, seasonal mean speed, and prevailing wind direction with measurement data.