Global Basic Reproduction Number of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and a Mental Model to Explore the Disease Dynamics

Basic reproduction number (R₀) is a mathematical expression used in epidemiology to address expected number of secondary cases. R₀ helps to predict outbreak diffusion and preventive measures. As African swine fever (ASF) is a viral infectious disease, there are significant studies related to R₀ of the ASF outbreak, but most of them are investigated in a zonal and geospecific boundary. This study explores the general overview of African swine fever virus (ASFV) R₀ based on existing literature and examines for the global scale using a doubling time approach using wild boar outbreaks. Further, a qualitative mental model is developed to explore the ASF disease dynamics. It was found that the average R₀ was 3.56 from existing literature. Based on the global scenario, ASFV spread in wild boar was above the threshold line (R0≥1). The recent growth trend (R0=5.87) flagging the very high risk. ASFV is threatening the world. The qualitative mental model highlighted the veterinary services as awareness and R&D support are highlighted as the control measures. This study provides a reference to researchers and veterinarians in setting strategies of developing preventive measures and highlights the importance of awareness programs and R&D support for mitigating the ASFV spread.