Growth forecast revisions over business cycles: Evidence from the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Sungjun Huh; Insu Kim

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109541

Growth forecast revisions over business cycles: Evidence from the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Sungjun Huh
, Insu Kim^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Faculty of Economics

Marquette University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › peer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper studies how expectations regarding current and future output growth are revised as the state of the economy evolves. We study this issue using GDP growth forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find an asymmetric relationship between forecast revisions and GDP growth. Forecasters make larger forecast revisions during contractions than during expansions when the deviation of the economy from its normal state is controlled for.

Original language	English
Article number	109541
Journal	Economics Letters
Volume	196
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109541
State	Published - 2020.11

Keywords

Asymmetric forecast revision
Business cycles
GDP growth forecast
SPF

Quacquarelli Symonds(QS) Subject Topics

Accounting & Finance
Economics & Econometrics

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10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109541

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title = "Growth forecast revisions over business cycles: Evidence from the Survey of Professional Forecasters",

abstract = "This paper studies how expectations regarding current and future output growth are revised as the state of the economy evolves. We study this issue using GDP growth forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find an asymmetric relationship between forecast revisions and GDP growth. Forecasters make larger forecast revisions during contractions than during expansions when the deviation of the economy from its normal state is controlled for.",

keywords = "Asymmetric forecast revision, Business cycles, GDP growth forecast, SPF",

author = "Sungjun Huh and Insu Kim",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020",

year = "2020",

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doi = "10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109541",

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journal = "Economics Letters",

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N2 - This paper studies how expectations regarding current and future output growth are revised as the state of the economy evolves. We study this issue using GDP growth forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find an asymmetric relationship between forecast revisions and GDP growth. Forecasters make larger forecast revisions during contractions than during expansions when the deviation of the economy from its normal state is controlled for.

AB - This paper studies how expectations regarding current and future output growth are revised as the state of the economy evolves. We study this issue using GDP growth forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find an asymmetric relationship between forecast revisions and GDP growth. Forecasters make larger forecast revisions during contractions than during expansions when the deviation of the economy from its normal state is controlled for.

KW - Asymmetric forecast revision

KW - Business cycles

KW - GDP growth forecast

KW - SPF

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85090699397

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DO - 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109541

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85090699397

SN - 0165-1765

VL - 196

JO - Economics Letters

JF - Economics Letters

M1 - 109541

ER -

Growth forecast revisions over business cycles: Evidence from the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Abstract

Keywords

Quacquarelli Symonds(QS) Subject Topics

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