Mitigating carbon emissions by energy transition, energy efficiency, and electrification: Difference between regulation indicators and empirical data

In this study, we compared the impacts of energy transition, efficiency, and electrification on carbon emissions using regulation indicators and empirical data. We constructed an empirical model to examine the relationship between energy variables and carbon emissions for 109 countries using Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE) score data from 2010 to 2017. The fixed-effect estimation model and quantile regression with fixed effects showed consistent results. Regulations on energy efficiency contributed to carbon mitigation with 0.003% elasticity. Moreover, a 1% increase in the energy intensity increased carbon emissions by 0.74% owing to inefficient energy usage, implying that energy efficiency is the most effective energy policy tool for climate mitigation. While regulations on energy transition generally did not have a significant impact, the harshness of regulations on energy transition had a meaningful impact on carbon mitigation. Electrification consistently increased carbon emissions by increasing accessibility to energy for 0.23% elasticity, which was 0.11% in the case of regulation. Accordingly, the electrification policy should be implemented after the energy transition policy in the generation sector. Finally, countries should decrease the energy intensity by implementing regulations and policies for improving energy efficiency.