Nomogram for predicting changes in cognitive function in community dwelling older adults with mild cognitive impairment based on Korea Longitudinal Study of Ageing Panel Data: a retrospective study

Purpose: This study aimed to identify factors associated with normal cognitive reversion and progression to dementia in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) residing in the community and to develop a nomogram. Methods: This longitudinal study used secondary data from the Korea Longitudinal Study of Ageing Panel Data (2006–2018). The study included 1,262 participants aged 60 or older, with initial Mini-Men-tal State Examination scores ranging from 18 to 23. Data were analyzed using the Rao-Scott chi-square test, panel binary logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in Stata ver. 17.0 (Stata Corp.). Results: The rate of reversion from MCI to normal cognition was 37.0% after 2 years and 32.9% after 12 years. The rate of progression to dementia was 18.0% after 2 years and 30.2% after 12 years. In the nomogram for reversion to normal cognition, the most significant influences were grip strength, depression, number of meetings, age, and regular exercise, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of.66. In contrast, in the nomogram for progression to dementia, the most significant influences were age, grip strength, instrumental activities of daily living, number of social meetings attended, depression, and regular exercise, with an AUC of.69. Conclusion: These nomograms can serve as an effective intervention tool for preventing dementia in the field of community health care since they can serve as a visual technique for presenting information on risk to individuals with MCI.