Predictive modeling of cellulose degradation by integrating temperature and moisture content effects

This study quantitatively evaluates the combined effects of temperature and relative humidity on paper degradation and presents a predictive model for estimating paper life expectancy. To this end, paper samples were thermally aged in sealed bottles under various temperature and relative humidity conditions, and changes in moisture content were directly measured to correct for moisture loss during the aging process. The relationship between moisture content and the rate of cellulose chain scission was established, and a moisture sorption isotherm was derived using the Guggenheim-Anderson-de Boer (GAB) model. By integrating the effects of temperature and moisture content on cellulose degradation, a predictive model was developed and validated using cotton linter paper and Hanji. The model predictions were in close agreement with the experimental results, with a slight underestimation (6–7%) primarily attributed to moisture overestimation at elevated temperatures. The applicability of the model was further verified by predicting the current molecular weight of the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty, which closely matched the actual measured values of the Annals. These findings demonstrate that the proposed model is effective for estimating cellulose degradation and predicting paper lifespan under various storage conditions.