Reliability prediction for rocket motor systems

The reliability prediction of one-shot systems flying at speeds exceeding Mach 1 should be evaluated from many firing tests. However, budget constraints make multiple firing tests impossible, and prediction methods must be substituted. The accuracy of conventional reliability prediction is largely dependent on the quantity of accumulated test data, which is a problem for budget constrained projects. Therefore, this paper proposes a reliability prediction method applying the MIL-HDBK-217 Plus standard, which describes acceptable reliability prediction methods with insufficient test data, to the rocket motor system. Thus, we are able to effectively model and predict reliability for the system.