Revisiting the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Korea: New Insights From the Quantile ARDL Approach

This study examines the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in Korea by considering possible nonlinearity. Utilising yearly data from 1990 to 2020 and the quantile autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we find long-run nonlinearity between exports and economic growth. Specifically, the marginal long-run effect of exports shows a decreasing trend with the quantiles. In the long term, capital is positively associated with economic growth. Additionally, the marginal long-run effect of capital shows an increasing trend with the quantiles. On the other hand, labour does not have a long-run relationship with economic growth, except in the 70th and 80th quantiles. Our study provides some contributions and implications for previous studies on the ELG hypothesis based on the long-run nonlinearity in exports, capital, and labour.