The Geopolitics of Civic Honesty: The Role of Interpersonal and Political Trust Amid Varying Degrees of Mafia Influence and State Resilience

Civic honesty—the moral standards that define citizens’ commitment to the public good—serves a fundamental role in societal functioning. Prior research has emphasized the role of vertical trust (trust in institutions) and horizontal trust (trust in fellow citizens) in predicting the endorsement of such standards among citizens. However, this research has mainly focused on the political conditions typical of the Global North while neglecting environments where criminal organizations, such as mafias, challenge state sovereignty and its monopoly over governance functions. Using a mixed-effects multilevel model and an extended Johnson–Neyman method for multiple moderators, we analyzed the role of two crucial contextual factors (i.e., criminal groups’ influence and state resilience) on the relationships between trust and civic honesty across 84 countries (N = 132,602). Results revealed that vertical trust is positively associated with civic honesty in contexts where the influence of criminal groups is lower and state resilience is higher. However, this relationship reverses when the influence of criminal groups is stronger and state resilience is weaker, suggesting that, in these circumstances, trust in institutions may reflect trust in (and adherence to) a system that is corrupt. In contrast, horizontal trust was negatively associated with civic honesty only in states characterized by lower resilience. Policy implications and future research directions are discussed.