Trade restrictions on digital services and the impact on manufacturing exports

In the digital age, digital services not only provide important intermediate inputs for manufacturing but they also affect the availability of other potentially ICT-enabled high-quality services as intermediate inputs. Therefore, it is particularly important and meaningful to explore the relationship between the liberalization of trade in digital services and manufacturing exports. This paper uses a panel dataset of bilateral exports of 15 manufacturing sectors in 54 countries, from 2014 to 2018, to examine the impact of digital services trade policy restrictions on exports of manufactured goods. The main results suggest that the impact of trade policy restrictions on manufacturing exports is mixed but mainly negative. Moreover, regulatory differences in digital services industries between bilateral country pairs also have a significant negative impact on the export performance of manufacturing industries. In addition, we further examine the heterogeneity of this impact mechanism across different policy areas, manufacturing sectors, and bilateral country-pair groups.