What Explains Variants in Resource Nationalism in Latin America...s Lithium Industry?

The growing strategic importance of lithium in the global energy transition, together with intensifying geopolitical competition, has prompted various Latin American countries to reassess their lithium governance strategies. While some have expanded state control—ranging from policies that directly influence production and fiscal regimes to largely “rhetorical” nationalization—others have maintained market-oriented approaches. What would explain these divergent responses despite their shared economic incentives—such as fiscal revenue generation, industrial upgrading, and political gains—for greater state control? This study introduces a two-stage decision-making framework that sequentially integrates economic, geopolitical, and political dynamics under the broader analytical lens of resource nationalism to explain lithium governance variation across Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, and Mexico. First, global commodity price cycles and strategic competition create external pressures and opportunities for state intervention, the effects of which are mediated by the industrial maturity of each country's lithium sector. Second, domestic political settlements ultimately determine the extent and form of state involvement. This theory-informed, sequenced, and structured comparative explanation underscores the need to recognize the complex and diverse nature of lithium governance regimes across Latin America.